Monday, February 22, 2016

Testing Forex Strategies

Any forex strategy, published on this site or one of you, before using it on a live account, you must first be tested on historical data and preferably on demo accounts and cent, so today we analyze and question about testing Forex strategies. The more so because I often novice Forex traders ask this question: "Do you think whether the right to life, my invented forex trading system ..."

there are several
trading strategies testing methods:

1) Visual method:

1. You set the schedule on your chosen currency pair all the forex indicators with the required parameters, makes building (if they are necessary and this strategy is based on a graphical analysis of forex) or install MetaTrader 4 template with already prescribed indicators and parameters m.

2. Then simply flip through the graph to the left - on the story and begin to find the signals received by the rules test your forex trading strategy. Thus, you notice where and on what sites your strategy made it possible to earn a number of points, and which gave only losses.


 



3. Looking through the story in such a way, you can identify forex market patterns and in particular, consideration of the currency pair, adjust and make changes to the forex indicators and thus achieve the best results when trading on the forex strategy.

4. When visual testing strategy must be at least scroll through the history of the price movement for 6 months, and preferably 1-2 years!

Of course it is quite time-consuming process, but nevertheless spent several hours on the calculation of profitability and optimization of forex strategy, you will save money on their real future trade.

I have personally tested this way almost every strategy of this site (although I do not deny that at this point many of them have lost their relevance, but at the time of publication, they all make a profit), and the same method found a pattern strategy "Flag + ABC" and my own strategy.

2) Testing using forex advisors:

This is certainly the most simple strategies to the test method: you or the programmer creates your adviser (although this service is also very often paid), you run the Advisor trading for you invented the trading system in the tester MetaTrader 4 strategies, select the desired time period in history, prescribe necessary parameters forex indicators adviser and he will testing strategy for the selected period.


 



If the results are not very good, then you change the parameters or pick forex indicators and ensure the profitability of your strategy devised. There are also settings and automatic selection process is called optimization. That is, you specify the scope of permissible "and from" every interested your indicator parameter and run the Advisor on optimization. Strategy Tester yourself pick the most profitable result and after a long process optimization gives you its settings (although you can choose to optimize results and independently from the entire array of options tested).

So you can most accurately test and optimize your strategy.

The recommended test interval and optimize - from 6 months (at least!) To 2-3 years (desirable).

Now a few words about the testing and optimization in Metatrader 4:

1. Advisor should be placed in the folder "C: \ Program Files \ <name Forex Broker> \ experts \", where the name - such as Forex4you or Metatrader 4 - <broker name>

2. Pre-all forex indicators used in the test strategy as well be placed in the folder "C: \ Program Files \ <name Forex Broker> \ experts \ indicators \



3. Note that if the "quality simulation" after testing is not equal to 90% and the number of errors "error schedules" is not equal to zero, znachittest held is not quite true! And the reason for such testing may not be a complete archive of quotes (with gaps in the history). In order to make it more complete, you need to reload these quotes and to test from the start!


 



I recommend testing of all advisers, and therefore forex strategy Alpari since This broker is the complete archive of quotations, today.

4. If desired, you can put a bird "Visualization" and you will see how and when the deal takes place, closing and TP.

5. It is also desirable to conduct testing using the "test forward" - a test that is conducted for the period for which you have not optimized Advisor! That is, if the optimization and testing carried advisor for a period not to this day, and a few months earlier (eg on 1.01.2012 1.09.2012 - the so-called back-test), then on the period from 01/09/2012 till today's date - 16.12.2012 advisor should give the same profit obtained by optimizing parameters Advisor!

There are certainly a lack in this test method:

There is no way to test graphics forex strategy, since the writing advisors on them quite difficult task, as I understood from talking with programmers ...

3) Testing on demo account or a cent account:

This method of testing is recommended after the 1st or 2nd method described above! This will allow you not to lose time (since forex signals sometimes have to wait a very long time) and save, though small, but still the money if you're trading in the forex cent accounts.

If the strategy and after the test on the 3rd method yields positive results within 1-2 months and you follow the rules of capital management, as well as the rules of money management, you can safely move on to trade on larger commercial accounts and deposits.